The Most Overheated Rental Markets in America
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For every rental market that has cooled below its trend, there is one renting above it. Using our Rent Reality Score, which measures a city's current median rent against its own 10-year trajectory, these are the large US markets where renters are paying the steepest premium versus history. A score below 50 means rent is running above trend.
#CityRent Reality ScoreMedian rentExpected by trendvs trend1Cedar Rapids, IA30$1,227$1,113+10.2%2Chicago, IL34$2,350$2,171+8.2%3Joliet, IL36$1,587$1,484+6.9%4Columbia, MO36$1,446$1,349+7.2%5Sunnyvale, CA36$3,628$3,386+7.1%6San Mateo, CA37$3,561$3,342+6.6%7New York, NY37$3,927$3,682+6.7%8Santa Clara, CA37$3,727$3,503+6.4%9Anchorage, AK37$1,698$1,596+6.4%10Daly City, CA39$2,762$2,613+5.7%
The coastal squeeze continues
The Bay Area is heavily represented: Sunnyvale, San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Daly City all rent above their long-run trend. These are chronically supply-constrained markets where new construction never caught up the way it did across the Sun Belt, so rents kept grinding higher. New York tells the same story at $3,927/mo, about 7% above where its trend projects.
The Midwest surprise
The single most overheated large market is not coastal at all. Cedar Rapids, Iowa renting about 10% above trend, with Chicago and Joliet close behind. Steady demand and limited new supply have pushed these markets above their historical path even without the headline-grabbing spikes of the coasts.
What "overheated" does and does not mean
A low Rent Reality Score does not predict a crash, and it does not mean a city is unaffordable in absolute terms. It means renters today are paying more than that specific market's own history would suggest, which is a useful signal if you have flexibility on timing or location. Compare against the most undervalued markets or read the full undervalued and overheated markets study for the complete methodology and dataset.
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes a rental market "overheated"?
A market is overheated when current median rent is above where its own 10-year trend projects it should be. The Rent Reality Score compares each city to its own history, so an overheated market is one where renters today are paying a premium versus that market’s established trajectory.
Does an overheated rental market mean rents are about to crash?
No. A low Rent Reality Score is descriptive, not a forecast. It tells you renters are currently paying more than the city’s own history would suggest, which is useful if you have flexibility on timing or location, but it does not predict that rents will fall.
Why is Cedar Rapids the most overheated market and not a coastal city?
Coastal markets like the Bay Area are expensive in absolute terms, but the Rent Reality Score measures each city against its own trend. Cedar Rapids has steady demand and limited new supply, which pushed its rent furthest above its own historical path even without a dramatic spike.
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Jennifer Han is the editor in chief of RentDataNow, covering rent trends, housing costs, and more. She was a real-estate agent before she moved to writing about the market.
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