The most undervalued and overheated US rental markets
Cape Coral, FL is America's most undervalued rental market, renting 21% below its 10-year trend, while Cedar Rapids, IA is the most overheated.
The Rent Reality Score is RentDataNow's proprietary measure of whether a city's rent is high or low relative to its own history. We fit each city's 10-year ZORI trajectory, project where rent "should" be today, and compare it to the actual median. A score above 50 means rent is below its own trend (a better deal than history suggests). Below 50 means it is renting above trend (overheated). Because every city is judged against itself, the score is immune to the income distortions that make cross-city affordability comparisons misleading. Figures use ZORI April 2026, and only high-confidence trends (population 100,000+) are ranked.
The most undervalued rental markets
These large US cities are renting furthest below their own long-run trend. Cape Coral, FL leads with a Rent Reality Score of 91, renting 21% below where its 10-year trajectory projects ($1,946/mo actual versus $2,447/mo expected).
| # | City | Rent Reality Score | Median rent | Expected by trend | vs trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cape Coral, FL | 91 | $1,946 | $2,447 | -20.5% |
| 2 | Glendale, AZ | 90 | $1,549 | $1,940 | -20.2% |
| 3 | Phoenix, AZ | 88 | $1,571 | $1,941 | -19.1% |
| 4 | San Tan Valley, AZ | 88 | $2,015 | $2,486 | -18.9% |
| 5 | Mesa, AZ | 87 | $1,561 | $1,911 | -18.3% |
| 6 | Tempe, AZ | 87 | $1,661 | $2,037 | -18.5% |
| 7 | Lehigh Acres, FL | 86 | $1,891 | $2,300 | -17.8% |
| 8 | Buckeye, AZ | 85 | $2,003 | $2,427 | -17.5% |
| 9 | Surprise, AZ | 85 | $1,931 | $2,345 | -17.6% |
| 10 | Gilbert, AZ | 84 | $2,037 | $2,451 | -16.9% |
| 11 | Peoria, AZ | 84 | $1,839 | $2,211 | -16.8% |
| 12 | Lancaster, CA | 84 | $2,362 | $2,844 | -17.0% |
| 13 | Chandler, AZ | 82 | $1,871 | $2,226 | -15.9% |
| 14 | Austin, TX | 82 | $1,567 | $1,864 | -16.0% |
| 15 | Spokane Valley, WA | 82 | $1,559 | $1,852 | -15.8% |
The most overheated rental markets
At the other end, these cities are renting furthest above their own trend. Cedar Rapids, IA is the most overheated, with a Rent Reality Score of 30, renting 10% above trend.
| # | City | Rent Reality Score | Median rent | Expected by trend | vs trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cedar Rapids, IA | 30 | $1,227 | $1,113 | +10.2% |
| 2 | Chicago, IL | 34 | $2,350 | $2,171 | +8.2% |
| 3 | Columbia, MO | 36 | $1,446 | $1,349 | +7.2% |
| 4 | Joliet, IL | 36 | $1,587 | $1,484 | +6.9% |
| 5 | Sunnyvale, CA | 36 | $3,628 | $3,386 | +7.1% |
| 6 | New York, NY | 37 | $3,927 | $3,682 | +6.7% |
| 7 | Santa Clara, CA | 37 | $3,727 | $3,503 | +6.4% |
| 8 | San Mateo, CA | 37 | $3,561 | $3,342 | +6.6% |
| 9 | Anchorage, AK | 37 | $1,698 | $1,596 | +6.4% |
| 10 | Rockford, IL | 38 | $1,199 | $1,131 | +6.0% |
| 11 | Daly City, CA | 39 | $2,762 | $2,613 | +5.7% |
| 12 | Chesapeake, VA | 40 | $2,036 | $1,943 | +4.8% |
| 13 | Jackson, MS | 42 | $1,255 | $1,207 | +4.0% |
| 14 | Topeka, KS | 42 | $1,224 | $1,176 | +4.1% |
| 15 | Evansville, IN | 42 | $1,013 | $973 | +4.1% |
Key findings
- Cape Coral, FL is the most undervalued large rental market in America, renting 21% below its 10-year trend.
- The undervalued list is dominated by Sun Belt metros, especially metro Phoenix and Florida's Gulf Coast, that overbuilt during the 2021 to 2022 boom and have since cooled.
- Cedar Rapids, IA tops the overheated list at 10% above trend. Supply-constrained coastal and Midwest markets cluster here.
- "Undervalued" means cheap relative to a city's own history, not cheap in absolute terms. A high-rent coastal city can still score well if it has cooled off its peak.
How to read the score
The Rent Reality Score answers a question raw rankings can't: is now a good time to rent here? A market that spiked 30% during the pandemic and has given back 15% will show a high score even if its rent is still high in dollar terms, because the renter today is paying well below the trajectory the market was on. Conversely, a market grinding steadily above its trend line is one where renters are paying a premium versus history. Click any city to see its full 10-year ZORI history and the underlying trend.
The Rent Reality Score measures a city's current median rent against its own long-run trajectory. For each city we take the monthly Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) series back to 2015, fit a log-linear trend on all but the trailing 12 months, and project that trend to the latest month. The percentage gap between actual rent and the projection is mapped to a 0–100 score where 50 is exactly on trend, above 50 is below trend (better value), and below 50 is above trend (overheated).
Each city is compared only to itself, so the score is unaffected by differences in local income or cost of living. We rank only cities with at least 36 months of history and a high-confidence trend fit (R² ≥ 0.5 and a deviation within ±30%); cities with erratic series or extreme one-off swings are flagged low-confidence and excluded from this ranking to avoid data artifacts. Population universe is 100,000+ per the US Census ACS 5-year estimate. Markets above $20,000/month are excluded as outliers.
The Rent Reality Score is a descriptive market indicator, not an appraisal, forecast, or financial advice.
The full underlying dataset is available as a CSV for verification, republishing, or extending the analysis.
↓ most-undervalued-and-overheated-rental-markets.csvThese findings and the accompanying dataset are released under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. You are free to republish, including commercially, as long as you credit RentDataNow and link back to this page so readers can verify the underlying data.
RentDataNow Data Team (2026). "The most undervalued and overheated US rental markets." RentDataNow. Retrieved from https://rentdatanow.com/studies/most-undervalued-and-overheated-rental-markets
- ZORI (Zillow Observed Rent Index) — monthly city-level median rent back to 2015, smoothed repeat-rent methodology. Public download at zillow.com/research/data.
- US Census ACS 5-year estimates — Table B01003 (population). US Census Bureau, latest published vintage.
- RentDataNow Rent Reality Score — proprietary trend-deviation model; methodology above. Every row links to the city's full ZORI history.
RentDataNow publishes original research grounded in ZORI rent data, BLS wage data, HUD Fair Market Rents, and US Census demographics. Every study includes the underlying numbers, methodology, and sources so readers can verify or extend the analysis.
RentDataNow is an independent service and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Zillow Group, Inc., the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, or any government agency. ZORI (Zillow Observed Rent Index), the American Community Survey, Fair Market Rents, and other product names are trademarks of their respective owners, used here for identification only. Figures are provided "as is" without warranty of accuracy or completeness, and any reuse is at your own risk. See our Terms of Service for full terms.