Rent vs. Income: How 7 Major Cities Changed Between 2021 and 2026

Between 2021 and 2026, the US rental market went through one of its most volatile stretches on record: a pandemic demand surge, a historic supply shortage, a wave of Sun Belt migration that repriced entire metros overnight, and then a correction that didn't happen evenly or predictably across cities. Some renters came out ahead. Many came out behind. Which camp you landed in depended almost entirely on where you were renting.

RentDataNow tracks five-year changes in median rent, median household income, population, and renter share for cities across the country. The data tells a more nuanced story than the national headlines did. Here is how seven major cities look when you compare where rents started in 2021 against where incomes and rents both landed in 2026.

The Cities Where Renters Won

Dallas is the quiet winner of the five-year period. Median rent moved from $1,351 to $1,606, a gain of 18.9%. Median household income moved from $58,231 to $70,518, a gain of 21.1%. Income grew faster than rent by 2.2 percentage points over five years. The renter share of the population ticked down slightly from 58.6% to 57.6%, suggesting some renters converted to ownership as the market stabilized. There was no dramatic correction, no boom-and-bust headline. Just steady parallel growth where incomes held their lead. Dallas doesn't generate the national coverage that Austin or Miami does, but the five-year math is cleaner than almost any other major metro.

Phoenix made a bigger move but came out in a similar position. Rent went from $1,321 to $1,567, up 18.6%. Income went from $64,927 to $81,332, up 25.3%. Income beat rent by 6.7 percentage points. Phoenix absorbed a significant wave of pandemic-era migration from California, which drove rents up sharply through 2022, but the income growth that came with those transplants more than compensated. The renter share fell from 43.9% to 42.7% as some of that new population moved into ownership. Over five years, the typical Phoenix renter is in a materially better financial position relative to rent than they were in 2021.

Austin is the most counterintuitive result on this list. Austin was the poster child for out-of-control rent growth in 2021 and 2022, with year-over-year increases that made national news. The five-year net: rent up just 8.5%, from $1,421 to $1,542. Income up 18.6%, from $78,965 to $93,658. Income beat rent by 10.1 percentage points, the largest renter-favorable spread of any city in this dataset. What happened was a correction. The oversupply that resulted from aggressive construction in response to that demand surge brought rents back down, and the high-wage tech and finance workforce that moved to Austin kept incomes rising. The renters who stayed through the peak years and didn't panic-relocate ended up in a better position than almost anywhere else in the country.

The Cities Where It Was a Draw

Las Vegas essentially broke even. Rent went from $1,382 to $1,699, up 22.9%. Income went from $61,356 to $73,877, up 20.4%. Rent beat income by 2.5 percentage points, a margin narrow enough that it falls within normal variation. The renter share fell from 46.3% to 43.4%, a notable three-point drop, which may reflect both some ownership conversion and some renters leaving the market entirely as costs rose. Las Vegas's hospitality-heavy economy was more volatile over this period than the income figures alone suggest: the workforce experienced significant disruption in 2020 and 2021 before recovering. The five-year endpoint looks like a draw, but the path getting there was rougher than the numbers show.

The Cities Where Rent Won

San Diego is the most expensive market where rent clearly outpaced income. Rent rose from $2,197 to $2,911, up 32.5%. Income rose from $89,457 to $108,077, up 20.8%. Rent beat income by 11.7 percentage points. San Diego's income base is strong, its defense and biotech sectors paid well through this period, and the current rent-to-income ratio of 32% keeps it closer to affordability than Los Angeles or Miami. But the five-year trajectory is moving in the wrong direction. Renters who signed leases in 2021 at $2,197 and renewed through 2026 absorbed $714 more per month than they started with, and their incomes did not keep up.

Columbus, Ohio is the surprise on this list. It's a city that gets cited in affordable housing conversations, and in absolute terms it still is: median rent of $1,445 is low by national standards. But rent grew 27.3% over five years, from $1,135 to $1,445, while income grew only 12.8%, from $58,575 to $66,082. Rent beat income by 14.5 percentage points, one of the worst spreads in this dataset. The renter share nudged up from 55.2% to 55.9%, suggesting ownership didn't absorb the cost pressure. Columbus's rapid growth as a tech and logistics hub drove strong demand without proportional supply response, and the people who absorbed that gap were renters. The city looks affordable in 2026 compared to the coasts. It looks significantly less affordable than it did five years ago for the people who were already there.

New York is in a category of its own. Rent moved from $2,598 to $3,811 over five years, a 46.7% increase. Income moved from $70,663 to $80,483, a 13.9% increase. Rent beat income by 32.8 percentage points. A renter paying the 2021 median is now paying $1,213 more per month for the same city. The renter share ticked up slightly from 66.8% to 67.2%, meaning more of New York's population is renting now than was five years ago, even as rents hit levels that have no precedent in the city's modern history. New York's rent growth was driven by a specific dynamic: pandemic-era vacancy triggered by outmigration, followed by a faster and more complete return than anyone predicted. Supply never caught up, and the people paying for that mismatch are tenants.

What the Five-Year Picture Tells You About 2026

The cities where income outpaced rent over five years, Dallas, Austin, Phoenix, are the same cities where the current rent-to-income ratio is most manageable. That's not a coincidence. Five years of income growing faster than rent compounds into a housing market that is structurally more affordable than it was, and that advantage tends to persist. The cities where rent outpaced income, New York, San Diego, Columbus, are carrying that gap forward into 2026 and beyond.

The five-year comparison for your specific city or ZIP code is available on each city page on RentDataNow. The data includes rent, income, population, renter share, and education attainment across the full window. Use the compare tool to put any two cities side by side on the metrics that matter for your decision.