Sun Belt Rent Is Falling. Here's Where and Why.

For many years, the Sun Belt rental story was about how fast rents were rising. Cities that had been considered affordable by national standards were adding $200, $300, even $500 a month to median rents within a single calendar year. Renters were being priced out of cities they had moved to specifically because they were affordable. The landlords had the leverage and they used it.

That story has shifted. Across a wide swath of the Sun Belt, rents are now falling. Not everywhere, not uniformly, and not by the same magnitude as they rose. But the direction has changed in enough markets that renters who have been waiting out a brutal few years now have real negotiating power in cities they might have written off.

Here is what RentDataNow's April 2026 data shows about where Sun Belt rents are declining, by how much, and why the correction happened.

Florida Is Leading the Decline

No state has more cities with falling rents than Florida, and the drops are among the steepest in the country. The pattern runs across the entire Tampa Bay corridor and extends down the Gulf Coast.

Largo leads the state at minus 5.9% year over year, with median rent now at $1,778 and one-bedrooms at $1,620. Month over month, Largo dropped another 2.7% in April. Cape Coral is down 4.1% to $1,931, Bradenton down 3.9% to $1,794, and Clearwater down 3.3% to $1,928. Tampa itself is down 2.4% to $1,950, and St. Petersburg is down 1.6% to $2,063.

The five-year context makes the Florida correction easier to understand. Tampa's median rent went from $1,458 in 2021 to a peak somewhere above $2,000 before settling at $1,950 today, a 33.7% gain over five years. Cape Coral rose 24.9% over the same period. These markets absorbed enormous migration pressure from the Northeast and Midwest through 2021 and 2022, and builders responded by adding supply aggressively. That supply is now hitting the market simultaneously, landlords are competing for tenants, and concessions that were unthinkable two years ago are appearing in listings again.

Florida's insurance market has compounded the correction. Rising homeowner and renter insurance costs after recent hurricane seasons have made the state less attractive to some transplants, and anecdotal evidence of net outmigration from price-sensitive renters who can't sustain Florida's combined housing and insurance costs has softened demand in markets that were overbuilt for the peak.

Miami is the notable holdout at plus 1.5% year over year, continuing to appreciate while the rest of the state corrects. Miami's supply constraints are more severe than Tampa or Cape Coral, and its international demand base is more insulated from domestic migration trends. The correction that hit the Gulf Coast has not yet reached Miami with the same force.

Texas: Two Cities Falling, Two Holding

Texas splits along interesting lines. The two largest metros by population are falling. Two others are still growing.

Austin is down 2.0% year over year to $1,542, continuing a correction that began in 2023. The five-year picture is striking: rent is up just 8.5% from 2021, against income growth of 18.6%. Austin built its way out of the crisis. The aggressive multifamily construction that was approved during the demand surge has delivered tens of thousands of new units into a market where the migration wave has normalized. Vacancy rates rose, landlords began offering free months and reduced deposits, and the median rent drifted down. Austin is now one of the few cities in the country where renters are genuinely better positioned relative to income than they were five years ago.

Houston is down 1.1% to $1,541, with one-bedrooms at $1,320. Houston's rent-to-income ratio sits at 29% against a $64,813 median income, just inside the affordability threshold. Houston has consistently been one of the more renter-friendly major metros in the country because its relatively permissive zoning allows supply to respond to demand faster than in most cities. The current decline reflects that mechanism working: demand eased slightly, supply kept coming, and rents adjusted.

San Antonio is down 1.7% to $1,360, with a 25% rent-to-income ratio against a $65,056 median income. San Antonio's military-adjacent economy creates a stable demand base that insulates the market from sharp swings in either direction, and the current modest decline reflects a market finding its level after several years of above-trend growth.

By contrast, Dallas is up 0.9% and Fort Worth is up 2.6%. The DFW market has absorbed its supply wave differently from Austin and Houston, with stronger corporate relocation demand keeping occupancy higher and limiting the downward pressure on rents.

Arizona: Phoenix and Glendale Falling, Scottsdale Rising

Phoenix is down 0.82% year over year to $1,567. The five-year change is 18.6% rent growth against 25.3% income growth, meaning Phoenix renters have come out ahead over the full period even with the pandemic-era surge included. The current decline is modest but directionally consistent: Phoenix built a significant volume of multifamily units between 2022 and 2024, and that inventory is still being absorbed.

Glendale is the sharpest mover in the Arizona market at minus 2.2% to $1,528, down another 1.0% month over month. At a 25% rent-to-income ratio against $73,530 median income, Glendale is both falling and well-priced relative to earnings, a combination that rarely stays available for long.

Scottsdale is the exception at plus 2.8%, continuing to appreciate as its premium positioning and supply constraints shelter it from the broader Phoenix correction. The two markets are adjacent but functionally separate in how they're behaving right now.

The Carolinas and Colorado

Raleigh is down 0.4% to $1,568, a modest softening against a strong income base of $85,395 and a 22% rent-to-income ratio. Raleigh built aggressively through 2023 and 2024 as the Research Triangle continued drawing tech and life sciences employers, and the supply is now slightly ahead of absorption. The correction is gentle, but the direction is notable for a market that had been appreciating consistently.

Denver is down 0.3% to $1,826 with a 23% ratio against a $94,718 median income, one of the strongest income bases in this dataset. Denver's decline is driven partly by a significant multifamily pipeline that delivered in 2024 and partly by some softening in the tech sector that had been driving in-migration. The drop is small in percentage terms but meaningful in absolute dollars at Denver's price level.

Why the Correction Happened

The mechanics are consistent across every city on this list. The pandemic-era migration wave created demand that outpaced existing supply in Sun Belt markets between 2020 and 2022. Rents spiked. Builders responded, because Sun Belt zoning and permitting is generally more accommodating than the coasts, and multifamily construction hit record levels in 2022 and 2023. Those units take 18 to 24 months to deliver, which is why the supply response is only hitting the market now rather than during the demand surge itself. Simultaneously, the migration wave normalized as the remote work calculus settled and some early movers returned to gateway cities. Demand eased, supply arrived, and rents adjusted.

The cities where rents are still rising, Charleston at plus 4.4%, Scottsdale at plus 2.8%, Fort Worth at plus 2.6%, are markets where either supply constraints are more severe, demand has remained stronger, or both. They are the exception rather than the rule across the broader Sun Belt in 2026.

Where the Sun Belt Is Still Rising

Not every Sun Belt market is softening, and understanding the exceptions matters as much as tracking the declines. Charleston, SC is the fastest-appreciating market in this dataset at plus 4.4%, now at $2,165 a month with one-bedrooms at $1,919. Charleston has relatively limited multifamily supply, strong tourism and tech-adjacent demand, and a coastal lifestyle premium that has kept it insulated from the broader correction. It's growing into a tier it hasn't historically occupied.

Nashville is up 0.6% to $1,786, essentially flat but trending in the opposite direction from Austin and Houston. Nashville's entertainment industry and healthcare economy have continued pulling workers into the city, and the supply pipeline has been less aggressive than in Texas or Arizona. The rent-to-income picture is tighter than in most Texas cities: one-bedrooms average $1,785 against a median income that produces a ratio closer to 30% than the 20-23% range you see in Austin or Phoenix.

Charlotte is up 0.7% to $1,721 with a 25% ratio. Charlotte's banking and finance sector has kept income growth strong enough that modest rent appreciation hasn't materially worsened affordability. It's not a falling market, but it's also not a market where the math is getting worse quickly.

The dividing line between markets that are falling and markets that are still rising tends to track two variables: how much new supply was delivered in 2023 and 2024, and how much the migration-driven demand surge has since normalized. Markets that built aggressively and saw demand pull back, Tampa, Austin, Phoenix, are falling. Markets that built more conservatively or maintained stronger ongoing demand, Charleston, Nashville, Dallas, are holding or growing modestly.

What This Means for Renters Right Now

Falling rents create negotiating leverage that didn't exist a year ago. In markets down 3% or more year over year, asking below the listed price, requesting free months, or pushing for longer lease terms at a fixed rate are all realistic asks. Landlords in oversupplied markets would rather fill a unit at a concession than carry vacancy.

The window may not stay open. If the new supply pipeline thins out in 2025 and 2026, which construction permit data suggests is likely as higher financing costs slow new starts, the supply overhang will eventually be absorbed and the downward pressure on rents will ease. The cities currently seeing the sharpest declines, Largo, Cape Coral, Tampa, Glendale, Austin, are the ones where the negotiating environment is best right now.

The current rent and year-over-year trend for every Sun Belt city is on RentDataNow. Use the compare tool to run any two markets side by side, or check the rent burden rankings to see where each city sits on affordability relative to local incomes.