Texas Is a Renter's Market Right Now, With Rent Bargains in Almost Every Major City

Texas renters are holding more leverage than they have in years. Across nearly every major metro in the state, current rents sit below where a decade of data says they should be. RentDataNow's Rent Reality Score grades a city's current rent against its own 10-year trend on a 0 to 100 scale, and the vast majority of big Texas cities land well above 50. That 50 mark is the line between a relative bargain and an overheated market, and right now most of Texas is comfortably on the bargain side. For renters signing or renewing a lease this year, the gap between current rents and the long-run trend is real money left on the table.

The biggest Texas rent bargains

Austin leads the pack. The metro that ran hottest during the pandemic surge now carries a median rent of $1,595 and a Rent Reality Score of 79, renting far below its own long-term trend even after rents ticked up 1.9% over the past year. The Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs are close behind. Garland sits at $1,516 with an RRS of 78 and rents down 3.6% year over year, while Denton, at $1,477 and a score of 75, has seen rents fall 3.7%. Round Rock, just north of Austin, posts the same 75 despite a 2.4% annual gain, a sign of how far above trend it once ran. Killeen is the cheapest bargain on the list at $1,239, with rents down 3.9%. Rounding out the group are New Braunfels at $1,555, Grand Prairie at $1,621 and Allen at $1,687, all scoring in the low 70s. Six of the eight cities on the bargain list carry RRS readings of 74 or higher.

What the Rent Reality Score measures

The Rent Reality Score is not a ranking of one city against another. It compares each city's current rent to its own 10-year trend, so a score of 79 in Austin and a score of 50 in Amarillo are both statements about those cities alone. A reading above 50 means renters are paying less than the long-run trend would predict, a relative bargain. A reading below 50 means the city is running hot relative to its own history. For context, the national median rent now sits at $1,951, well above every Texas city on the bargain list, but the score is about trend, not sticker price. That distinction matters most when comparing metros at very different price levels. A cheap city can still be overheated, and an expensive one can still be a bargain against its own baseline.

The Texas cities closest to fully priced

A handful of Texas markets have caught back up to their own trends. El Paso is the only major Texas city renting slightly above its baseline, with an RRS of 49, a $1,513 median and the steepest annual jump in the state at 6.1%. Beaumont and Amarillo both sit right at 50, essentially priced in line with history, with Amarillo up a sharp 7.1% over the year. On the pricier end, Sugar Land at $2,005 scores 52 and League City at $1,846 scores 53, both barely into bargain territory. Lubbock, at $1,413 and an RRS of 54, rounds out the group. None of these are overpriced traps, they are simply the Texas cities where the post-pandemic discount has mostly closed.

Rents come from RentDataNow, anchored to the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), and the Rent Reality Score is RentDataNow's proprietary metric.